The Golden Naked Man With the Big Sword

Here's my Oscars ballot. If I go 24/24, you all owe me brownies.

Live Action Short
Who Will Win: God of Love
Who I'd Vote For: God of Love
Second Choice: Wish 143

Animated Short
Who Will Win: Day & Night
Who I'd vote For: Day & Night
Second Choice: The Lost Thing

Documentary Short Subject
Who Will Win: Strangers No More
Who I'd Vote For: Poster Girl

Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Inside Man
Who I'd Vote For: Restrepo
Second Choice: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception

Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech

Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Tron Legacy (Yeah, yeah. Shut up.)
Second Place: True Grit

Best Make-Up
Fuck if I know. I didn't see any of these.
Let's just go with: Barney's Version

Best Costume
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: True Grit

Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: True Grit
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: True Grit

Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech

Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: 127 Hours
Second Place: Black Swan

Best Original Score
Who Should Win: Inception (If there is justice, which mean's it won't.)
Who Will Win: The Social Network

Best Original Song
Who Will Win: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Who I'd Vote For: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Second Place: If I See the Light (Tangled)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network
Second Place: True Grit

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: Winter's Bone

Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: Incendies
I didn't see any of these. I'm playing the odds (although Dogtooth does sound interesting).

Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Toy Story 3
Who I'd Vote For: How to Train Your Dragon
Everybody called me crazy for picking Crash for Best Picture in 2005. Upsets happen all the time, and I say How to Train Your Dragon still has a chance. But I'm playing conservatively, so I'm selling out my beliefs. (PS, The Illusionist is also a nice film. Imagine 'The Giving Tree,' but with a magician. It just had the misfortune of coming out in the wrong year.)

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Who I'd Vote For: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Second Choice: Geoffry Rush (The King's Speech)

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Who I'd Vote For: Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Second Choice: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Who I'd Vote For: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Second Choice: Anette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Who I'd Vote For: James Franco (127 Hours)
Second Choice: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Director
Who Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Who I'd Vote For: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Second Place: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)

Best Picture
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network

Odds for Best Picture:
The Social Network - 45%
The King's Speech - 40%
Black Swan - 8%
True Grit - 3%
The Fighter - .05%
The Kids Are All Right - .03%
Inception - .01%
Toy Story 3 - .001%
127 Hours - .001%
Winter's Bone - .00001%