Best Short (animated and live-action):
I consider myself a Simpsons fan, but for the life of me, I have no idea how 'Maggie Simpson in: 'The Longest Daycare'' earned a nomination. It wasn't funny, it's story was weak, and it wasn't particularly well-animated. I think Fox just cashed in a few favors.
The safe bet here is on 'Paperman.' It's overflowing with classic Disney charm, and I cannot forsee any circumstances in which it doesn't win.
On the live-action side of things, it was an entirely different story. All five contenders were truly strong and deserving of their nominations. It could go any direction, and I would be content with that. However, I know the Academy tends to favor short films that feature a lighthearted approach to serious issues, and the one film that fits that requirement is 'Curfew.' It's where I'm placing my bets, but again, don't be surprised if you have to buy the donuts Monday morning.
Best Documentary Short and Feature:
Again, another year where I know nothing about anything, and am forced to read film blog after film blog to ascertain any answers. Just like you, amirite?
Despite the unavailability of non-fiction film, all movie experts say it comes down to two options: 'Searching For Sugar Man' or 'How to Survive a Plague.' Normally, I recommend remembering Oscar's history of favoring the most controversial and topical of content, and 'How to Survive a Plague' would get my vote in that regard, but based on 'Searching For Sugar Man's' stack of wins at other events and festivals, I say go in that direction.
For the shorts.... erm... 'Mondays at Racine.'
Visual Effects:
While I'd love to see 'The Avengers' walk away with the prize, the critical darling 'Life of Pi' is poised to be the winner. On the plus side, I can look forward to a political cartoon the following week simply reading "Hulk Mad! Hulk Smash!"
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing:
Just a reminder, Sound Editing is foley, sound mixing is soundtrack, vocals, score and foley. Now, 'Skyfall' has a chance of taking home both awards, but it's up against some stiff competitors. I have no basis for this slanderous opinion, but I think the Academy is prejudice against the Bond franchise. Ergo, I believe Sound Editing will go to 'Zero Dark Thirty,' which has a precedent of going towards war films, and Sound Mixing will go to 'Les Miserables,' which has a precedent of going towards musicals.
Production Design:
The Production Design Oscar is the new name for the Art Direction Oscar for reasons I don't understand, and for reasons nobody cares to explain. Five good competitors this year, and while my personal vote goes to 'Lincoln' and it's vivacious recreation of 1860s America, I think cinephiles will instead flock to Les Miserables, not only for it's depiction of early 19th-century France, but for a wholeheartedly enthusiastic and devoted portrayal to the Broadway show.
Original Song and Score:
I love when a novelty song gets the Best Original Song nomination, even if it stands no chance of winning. I also love how it was written and performed by the man hosting the Oscars ceremony. We're gonna get a bunch of jokes out of that. The award is going to Adele because it's 2013, and she's Adele.
For Original Score, I champion Lincoln. It has that Ken-Burnsy civil war documentary motif throughout, but also stands alone as its own entity. Also, it's the only one of the nominees I can actually distinctly remember.
Makeup & Hairstyling:
Hitchcock and terrible makeup & hair. Alfred Hitchcock has one of the most iconic faces in film history, and at no point during the film was I convinced I was watching the master of suspense. It was just Hannibal Lecter in a really big fat suit.
You may feel compelled vote for The Hobbit. Well just remember, last year the award went not to Harry Potter and the Millions of Creatures Covered in Wigs and Latex Masks, but instead went to the man who made a lady who already looked like Margaret Thatcher look slightly more like Margaret Thatcher. I say, go with Les Mis.
Foreign Language Film:
As much as I love the story of the 'Kon-Tiki,' the safe money is 'Amour.' It won the Palme D'Or, it garnered a Best Picture nomination, and it's a weeper.
Animated Feature:
If 'Brave' wins, and you happen to hear someone outside yelling 'Fix!,' that's me. Hands off, Pixar. No coasting on legacy.
'Wreck-It Ralph' seems like the favorable choice. I love their ability to turn an 8-bit sprite into a 3D figure, have them walk alongside a Master Chief-clone, and yet still both look like classic Disney characters. It would be the first win for Walt Disney Animation Studios, and if 'Paperman' wins the Best Animated Short, it'd be a double-whammy for Disney.
Film Editing:
No idea. But when in doubt, go with whoever's taking home Best Picture. Spoiler, that's 'Argo.'
Costume Design:
Both Snow White films? Really? One of them I can understand, but both? 'Mirror Mirror' looks like somebody plagiarized Mattel, and 'Snow White & The Huntsman' looks like a Renaissance fair.
I know the rule is "Whichever has the most petticoats," and that would be 'Anna Karenina.' I hate that rule. However, I really can't argue with this year, so 'Anna Karenina' it is.
Cinematography:
Five very worthy entrants this year. The unconventional camerawork of Anna Karenina. The slow, long-takes of Lincoln. The new-wave hyperstyle of Life of Pi. The always whimsical Tarantino style of Django Unchained. Skyfall and a near-perfect action style that uses Shakycam in an appropriate, and controlled manner, which all you assholes in Hollywood should be paying attention to, ahem ahem.
I'm very shocked The Master didn't get any attention here. It seemed the whole movie was designed with the intention of getting an award here. Oh well, better luck next time, Paul Thomas Anderson. I'm going to place my bets on Life of Pi.
Supporting Actress:
Les Miserables is, without hyperbole, the most revered musical in Broadway history. The decision to use actors not classically trained in theater (with the exception of Hugh Jackman) to play the iconic roles was questionable and controversial. Director Tom Hooper quelled these fears by putting Anne Hathaway, singing, front and center in the film's trailer. And suddenly, everybody shut up.
Anne Hathaway, no competition.
Best Supporting Actor:
It puzzles me how Alan Arkin got a nomination, but not John Goodman. Arkin was there, but Goodman had all the personality, all the good lines, all the memorable scenes and expressions. Oh well, keep trying John. The Coen brothers will get you a statue eventually.
Christoph Waltz is my choice, but I offer my advice with trepidation. If you'll recall, he last won the award for his role in Tarantino's 'Inglourious Basterds.' The similarity of the roles may not sit right with the voters, motivating them to send their votes elsewhere. But I guarantee you, whoever wins, nobody will happy.
Best Leading Actress:
Congratulations to Academy voters for rewriting all movie-trivia works by simultaneously giving nominations to the oldest actress (Emmanuelle Riva, 84) and youngest (Quvenzhane Wallis, 9) in Oscar history.
Jennifer Lawrence is the heavy favorite here, and for good reason. She's become Hollywood royalty in a very short time, and she shows no signs of slowing down.
Best Leading Actor:
Daniel-Day Lewis. If you need any explanation, you shouldn't be involved in Oscar pools.
Best Screenplay, Original and Adapted:
'Zero Dark Thirty' is nominated for best Original Screenplay, while Lincoln is in the Best Adapted category. Clearly, the qualifications need to be redefined.
As evidenced above, I'm expecting Argo to get it's clock cleaned in most categories. As such, it'll pick up an easy win for best adapted screenplay. However, I would like to go on record touting my love for Silver Linings Playbook. Tackling serious issues with a smile is a difficult task, and they deserve mention for doing it so well.
For Original Screenplay, I feel strongly towards Django Unchained. Tarantino hasn't earned a statue since Pulp Fiction in 1994, and his general attitude and vitriolic opinions towards the institution would explain why. But his nomination for Inglourious Basterds in 2009 proves the Academy is warming up to him again. I feel this is his year.
Best Director:
I could not believe the nominations this year. I was 1/5. Bigelow wasn't nominated. Affleck wasn't nominated. Tarantino wasn't nominated. Paul Thomas Anderson wasn't nominated. Spielberg was nominated, but that was the one I felt I would be wrong about.
Since the Academy doesn't allow write-in candidates, the obvious choice of Ben Affleck is wrong. Instead, I'm favoring Lincoln. Because I basically have to.
Best Picture:
Argo.
Argour.
Argo Dark Thirty.
Arjgo Unchained.
Beasts of the Southern Argo.
Life of 'Go.
Silver Argo Playbook.
Les Miserargos.
Lincoln, but with Argo in it's name.
To recap:
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Live-Action Short: Curfew
Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Production Design: Les Miserables
Original Score: Lincoln
Original Song: "Skyfall" from Skyfall by Adele
Makeup and Hair: Les Miserables
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Film Editing: Argo
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained
Best Leading Actress: Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Best Leading Actor: Daniel-Day Lewis in Lincoln
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Directing: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Best Picture: Argo
EDIT: 19/24. My best year yet.
Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts
2/23/2013
12/28/2012
2012 Best Picture Speculation
Oscar nominations come out on Thursday, January 10th. Can you believe it? We'll be talking about the best of 2012 cinema when it's actually relatively close to 2012.
I can't wait. I wanna speculate now.
Will be nominated for Best Picture:
1) Argo
2) Django Unchained
3) Lincoln
4) Silver Linings Playbook
5) Zero Dark Thirty
Will almost definitely be nominated for Best Picture:
6) The Master
7) Les Miserables
8) Life of Pi
Stand a good chance of being nominated for Best Picture:
9) Amour
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild
11) End of Watch
12) The Intouchables
13) Moonrise Kingdom
14) Rust and Bone
15) The Sessions
Stand an outside chance of being nominated for Best Picture:
16) Anna Karenina
17) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
18) Flight
19) The Impossible
20) Take This Waltz
Films that I have heard as being speculated for Best Picture in various publications, but stand no chance in Hell:
21) Bernie
22) Cloud Atlas
23) The Dark Knight Rises
24) The Hobbit
25) Looper
26) Magic Mike
27) Prometheus
28) Promised Land
29) Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
30) Seven Psychopaths
31) Skyfall
32) Trouble With the Curve
I can't wait. I wanna speculate now.
Will be nominated for Best Picture:
1) Argo
2) Django Unchained
3) Lincoln
4) Silver Linings Playbook
5) Zero Dark Thirty
Will almost definitely be nominated for Best Picture:
6) The Master
7) Les Miserables
8) Life of Pi
Stand a good chance of being nominated for Best Picture:
9) Amour
10) Beasts of the Southern Wild
11) End of Watch
12) The Intouchables
13) Moonrise Kingdom
14) Rust and Bone
15) The Sessions
Stand an outside chance of being nominated for Best Picture:
16) Anna Karenina
17) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
18) Flight
19) The Impossible
20) Take This Waltz
Films that I have heard as being speculated for Best Picture in various publications, but stand no chance in Hell:
21) Bernie
22) Cloud Atlas
23) The Dark Knight Rises
24) The Hobbit
25) Looper
26) Magic Mike
27) Prometheus
28) Promised Land
29) Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
30) Seven Psychopaths
31) Skyfall
32) Trouble With the Curve
2/23/2012
Oscar Predictions - 2012
Last year I got 12/24. This year, I'm going to get better than an F.
Live Action Short Film:
Winner: Time Freak
Upset: Tuba Atlantic
Dark Horse: Raju
Animated Short Film:
Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore (The writer was paid by the syllable, apparently)
Upset: La Luna
Dark Horse: Wild Life
Documentary Short:
Winner: Incident in New Baghdad
Upset: Saving Face
Dark Horse: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Documentary Feature:
This is the hardest category to predict this year. If you get this right, you must work for PriceWaterhouseCooper.
Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Upset: Hell and Back Again
Dark Horse: Pina
Foreign Language Film:
Winner: A Separation
No others here. This is a lock.
Animated Feature:
Winner: Rango
Another lock. This one had the award in the bag before the nominations came out.
Make-up:
Winner: Harry Potter 8
Upset: The Iron Lady
Hey, remember last year how The Wolf Man won? That was weird.
Original Score:
Winner: The Artist (Original score, aside from the parts heavily borrowed from Vertigo)
Upset: The Adventures of Tintin
Dark Horse: War Horse
Original Song:
Thanks again for fucking up this category, Academy
Winner: Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
Visual Effects:
Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Upset: Harry Potter 8
Dark Horse: Real Steel
Sound Mixing (Dialogue and Balancing):
Winner: Hugo
Upset: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Dark Horse: War Horse
Sound Editing (Foley and Effects):
Winner: Hugo
Upset: Drive
Dark Horse: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Costume Design:
Winner: The Artist (Tuxedos and fancy pants)
Upset: Jane Eyre (Petticoats and fancy pants)
Dark Horse: Hugo (Berets and fancy pants)
Art Direction:
Winner: The Artist (Come on, it's in the title)
Upset: Hugo
Dark Horse: Harry Potter 8 (It'd be a lifetime achievement award for Harry Potter.)
Editing:
Winner: The Artist
Upset: The Descendants
Dark Horse: Hugo
Cinematography:
This is where I stray from the popular opinion. I believe the majority of the Academy will stray from the surreal stylings of The Tree of Life towards something more traditional.
Winner: Hugo
Upset: The Tree of Life
Dark Horse: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Original Screenplay:
Winner: Midnight in Paris
Upset: A Separation
Dark Horse: Margin Call
Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Descendants
Upset: The Ides of March
Dark Horse: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Supporting Actress:
Winner: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Upset: Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Supporting Actor:
Winner: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Upset: Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Dark Horse: Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Leading Actress:
Winner: Viola Davis - The Help
Upset: Michelle Williams - My Week With Marylin
Dark Horse: Rooney Mara - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Leading Actor:
Very very close. I think Clooney will edge out Dujardin simply because of favoritism.
Winner: George Clooney - The Descendants
Upset: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Dark Horse: Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Directing:
Winner: Michel Hazanavinazavinazavinicazazinivus - The Artist
Upset: Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Best Picture:
9th place: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
8th place: The Tree of Life
7th place: War Horse
6th place: Moneyball
5th place: The Help
4th place: Midnight in Paris
3rd place: Hugo
2nd place: The Descnedants
Winner: The Artist
EDIT: 15/24. Still weirded out how The Iron Lady got more Oscars than The Descendents.
Live Action Short Film:
Winner: Time Freak
Upset: Tuba Atlantic
Dark Horse: Raju
Animated Short Film:
Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore (The writer was paid by the syllable, apparently)
Upset: La Luna
Dark Horse: Wild Life
Documentary Short:
Winner: Incident in New Baghdad
Upset: Saving Face
Dark Horse: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Documentary Feature:
This is the hardest category to predict this year. If you get this right, you must work for PriceWaterhouseCooper.
Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Upset: Hell and Back Again
Dark Horse: Pina
Foreign Language Film:
Winner: A Separation
No others here. This is a lock.
Animated Feature:
Winner: Rango
Another lock. This one had the award in the bag before the nominations came out.
Make-up:
Winner: Harry Potter 8
Upset: The Iron Lady
Hey, remember last year how The Wolf Man won? That was weird.
Original Score:
Winner: The Artist (Original score, aside from the parts heavily borrowed from Vertigo)
Upset: The Adventures of Tintin
Dark Horse: War Horse
Original Song:
Thanks again for fucking up this category, Academy
Winner: Man or Muppet (The Muppets)
Visual Effects:
Winner: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Upset: Harry Potter 8
Dark Horse: Real Steel
Sound Mixing (Dialogue and Balancing):
Winner: Hugo
Upset: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Dark Horse: War Horse
Sound Editing (Foley and Effects):
Winner: Hugo
Upset: Drive
Dark Horse: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Costume Design:
Winner: The Artist (Tuxedos and fancy pants)
Upset: Jane Eyre (Petticoats and fancy pants)
Dark Horse: Hugo (Berets and fancy pants)
Art Direction:
Winner: The Artist (Come on, it's in the title)
Upset: Hugo
Dark Horse: Harry Potter 8 (It'd be a lifetime achievement award for Harry Potter.)
Editing:
Winner: The Artist
Upset: The Descendants
Dark Horse: Hugo
Cinematography:
This is where I stray from the popular opinion. I believe the majority of the Academy will stray from the surreal stylings of The Tree of Life towards something more traditional.
Winner: Hugo
Upset: The Tree of Life
Dark Horse: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Original Screenplay:
Winner: Midnight in Paris
Upset: A Separation
Dark Horse: Margin Call
Adapted Screenplay:
Winner: The Descendants
Upset: The Ides of March
Dark Horse: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Supporting Actress:
Winner: Octavia Spencer - The Help
Upset: Berenice Bejo - The Artist
Dark Horse: Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Supporting Actor:
Winner: Christopher Plummer - Beginners
Upset: Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Dark Horse: Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Leading Actress:
Winner: Viola Davis - The Help
Upset: Michelle Williams - My Week With Marylin
Dark Horse: Rooney Mara - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Leading Actor:
Very very close. I think Clooney will edge out Dujardin simply because of favoritism.
Winner: George Clooney - The Descendants
Upset: Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Dark Horse: Brad Pitt - Moneyball
Directing:
Winner: Michel Hazanavinazavinazavinicazazinivus - The Artist
Upset: Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Best Picture:
9th place: Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
8th place: The Tree of Life
7th place: War Horse
6th place: Moneyball
5th place: The Help
4th place: Midnight in Paris
3rd place: Hugo
2nd place: The Descnedants
Winner: The Artist
EDIT: 15/24. Still weirded out how The Iron Lady got more Oscars than The Descendents.
2/08/2012
Extremely Similar and Incredibly Close
Here's something interesting I discovered about Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. It got the Oscar nom for Best Picture because it's exactly the same as the other eight films.
Don't believe me?
It's the personal story of how one boy and his best friend were separated by an infamous act of international violence...
...Causing the young boy to lose his father in a tragic accident, establishing a mystery centered around a lock and key...
...But by using an unconventional strategy, backed by a mathematical algorithm involving normally overlooked people...
...He keeps alive the memories of his father, his enduring legacy and the impact he had on his adolescent life...
...By going on a futile journey for solace, to find answers as to why his once-perfect life has unfairly been upended...
...And Viola Davis is there, who has much bigger problems than the young, white, protagonist, but she agrees to help anyways...
...And there's a deeply depressed man, plagued by his own silence...
...But in the end, after meeting numerous interesting people, the hero learns to let go of the past and focus on his future in the city he loves.
Don't believe me?
It's the personal story of how one boy and his best friend were separated by an infamous act of international violence...
...Causing the young boy to lose his father in a tragic accident, establishing a mystery centered around a lock and key...
...But by using an unconventional strategy, backed by a mathematical algorithm involving normally overlooked people...
...He keeps alive the memories of his father, his enduring legacy and the impact he had on his adolescent life...
...By going on a futile journey for solace, to find answers as to why his once-perfect life has unfairly been upended...
...And Viola Davis is there, who has much bigger problems than the young, white, protagonist, but she agrees to help anyways...
...And there's a deeply depressed man, plagued by his own silence...
...But in the end, after meeting numerous interesting people, the hero learns to let go of the past and focus on his future in the city he loves.
1/23/2012
Carnac the Magnificent
Oscar Noms come out tomorrow morning. Here's a quick prediction:
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
EDIT: Hey, 8/10. I did pretty well. Good to see Tree of Life get some acknowledgement. I guess the vote was split between TTSS and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
Moneyball
The Help
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse
Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
EDIT: Hey, 8/10. I did pretty well. Good to see Tree of Life get some acknowledgement. I guess the vote was split between TTSS and Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.
2/23/2011
The Golden Naked Man With the Big Sword
Here's my Oscars ballot. If I go 24/24, you all owe me brownies.
Live Action Short
Who Will Win: God of Love
Who I'd Vote For: God of Love
Second Choice: Wish 143
Animated Short
Who Will Win: Day & Night
Who I'd vote For: Day & Night
Second Choice: The Lost Thing
Documentary Short Subject
Who Will Win: Strangers No More
Who I'd Vote For: Poster Girl
Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Inside Man
Who I'd Vote For: Restrepo
Second Choice: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech
Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Tron Legacy (Yeah, yeah. Shut up.)
Second Place: True Grit
Best Make-Up
Fuck if I know. I didn't see any of these.
Let's just go with: Barney's Version
Best Costume
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: True Grit
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: True Grit
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: True Grit
Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: 127 Hours
Second Place: Black Swan
Best Original Score
Who Should Win: Inception (If there is justice, which mean's it won't.)
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Who I'd Vote For: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Second Place: If I See the Light (Tangled)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network
Second Place: True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: Winter's Bone
Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: Incendies
I didn't see any of these. I'm playing the odds (although Dogtooth does sound interesting).
Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Toy Story 3
Who I'd Vote For: How to Train Your Dragon
Everybody called me crazy for picking Crash for Best Picture in 2005. Upsets happen all the time, and I say How to Train Your Dragon still has a chance. But I'm playing conservatively, so I'm selling out my beliefs. (PS, The Illusionist is also a nice film. Imagine 'The Giving Tree,' but with a magician. It just had the misfortune of coming out in the wrong year.)
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Who I'd Vote For: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Second Choice: Geoffry Rush (The King's Speech)
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Who I'd Vote For: Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Second Choice: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Who I'd Vote For: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Second Choice: Anette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Who I'd Vote For: James Franco (127 Hours)
Second Choice: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Director
Who Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Who I'd Vote For: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Second Place: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Picture
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network
Odds for Best Picture:
The Social Network - 45%
The King's Speech - 40%
Black Swan - 8%
True Grit - 3%
The Fighter - .05%
The Kids Are All Right - .03%
Inception - .01%
Toy Story 3 - .001%
127 Hours - .001%
Winter's Bone - .00001%
Live Action Short
Who Will Win: God of Love
Who I'd Vote For: God of Love
Second Choice: Wish 143
Animated Short
Who Will Win: Day & Night
Who I'd vote For: Day & Night
Second Choice: The Lost Thing
Documentary Short Subject
Who Will Win: Strangers No More
Who I'd Vote For: Poster Girl
Documentary Feature
Who Will Win: Inside Man
Who I'd Vote For: Restrepo
Second Choice: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Visual Effects
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Best Sound Mixing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech
Best Sound Editing
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Tron Legacy (Yeah, yeah. Shut up.)
Second Place: True Grit
Best Make-Up
Fuck if I know. I didn't see any of these.
Let's just go with: Barney's Version
Best Costume
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: True Grit
Best Cinematography
Who Will Win: True Grit
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: True Grit
Best Art Direction
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I'd Vote For: Inception
Second Place: The King's Speech
Best Film Editing
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: 127 Hours
Second Place: Black Swan
Best Original Score
Who Should Win: Inception (If there is justice, which mean's it won't.)
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Best Original Song
Who Will Win: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Who I'd Vote For: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3)
Second Place: If I See the Light (Tangled)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network
Second Place: True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who I'd Vote For: The King's Speech
Second Place: Winter's Bone
Best Foreign Film
Who Will Win: Incendies
I didn't see any of these. I'm playing the odds (although Dogtooth does sound interesting).
Best Animated Film
Who Will Win: Toy Story 3
Who I'd Vote For: How to Train Your Dragon
Everybody called me crazy for picking Crash for Best Picture in 2005. Upsets happen all the time, and I say How to Train Your Dragon still has a chance. But I'm playing conservatively, so I'm selling out my beliefs. (PS, The Illusionist is also a nice film. Imagine 'The Giving Tree,' but with a magician. It just had the misfortune of coming out in the wrong year.)
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Who I'd Vote For: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Second Choice: Geoffry Rush (The King's Speech)
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Who I'd Vote For: Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Second Choice: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Who I'd Vote For: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Second Choice: Anette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Who I'd Vote For: James Franco (127 Hours)
Second Choice: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Director
Who Will Win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Who I'd Vote For: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Second Place: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Best Picture
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I'd Vote For: The Social Network
Odds for Best Picture:
The Social Network - 45%
The King's Speech - 40%
Black Swan - 8%
True Grit - 3%
The Fighter - .05%
The Kids Are All Right - .03%
Inception - .01%
Toy Story 3 - .001%
127 Hours - .001%
Winter's Bone - .00001%
2/07/2011
Award Is Not Enough
From 1933 to 1944, the AMPAS honored ten films every year in the Best Picture category. Beginning in 1945, they streamlined the process limiting the nominees to a mere five. There was no official reason as to why this change was made. In 2009, the AMPAS bumped the total number of best picture nominees back up to ten films.
The official reasoning behind this decision was to honor more mainstream films, thus enticing more people to watch the televised ceremony. The actual reason was to alleviate guilt; no longer were members of the academy forced to kowtow to Oscar Bait. You could, if you so desired, nominate films that you enjoyed watching.
But what if the Academy had made this decision ten years earlier? What would the nominations look like from 1999-2008 if every year had ten best film nominations?
If I may be so bold:
1999:
With the exceptions of 1928, 1935 and 1989, every film that's won Best Picture has been nominated for best director. As such, we can pretty much deduce with ten nominees that any film nominated for Best Director would also receive a nomination for Best Picture. In the case of 1999, that film would be Being John Malkovich.
At the Golden Globes, Man on the Moon won best picture (musical or comedy) and best actor in a lead role (Jim Carrey), so we can assume there was more than just mild interest in this film. It's also a biopic of somebody who dies tragically young, and the Academy loves those.
We can tell based on the nominations for The Green Mile and The Sixth Sense that 1999 favored psychological mindscrews. As such, with ten nominations, we can deduce one other film would be of the same vein. The Talented Mr Ripley can fill that niche.
I don't think Toy Story 2 would receive a nomination. Pixar was still in its infancy in 1999, and animation would probably still be getting the short end of the stick. But the groundwork has been laid; critics would already be asking why Pixar didn't get a nomination. The animation ghetto argument has just advanced by nine years.
Instead, let's give the final nominations to Magnolia because its a great film that was overlooked, and The Hurricane, because boxing movies are always nominated.
* American Beauty
o The Cider House Rules
o The Green Mile
o The Insider
o The Sixth Sense
+ Being John Malkovich
+ The Hurricane
+ Magnolia
+ Man on the Moon
+ The Talented Mr Ripley
-------------------------
2000:
Wow. Just looking at the nominees for 2000, I can already see how far we've come regarding Oscar Bait.
First, Billy Elliot gets in because of the director rule (groan).
Next, we'll give a nomination to Cast Away because everybody saw it, everybody loved it, it made its impact on popular culture, and then pretty much everybody forgot about it. Just like most Best Picture nominees.
We'll give the token comedy slot to Almost Famous because it won at the Golden Globes. And because it also managed to snatch the Best Original Screenplay Oscar away from the Best Picture winner, Gladiator. Which is a feat in and of itself.
Let's give the penultimate slot to Wonder Boys. No particular reason, here.
Finally, to prove that at least someone in Hollywood had a pulse in 2001, the final slot goes to Requiem For a Dream. It was one of the essential movies in the history of Indie films, it tackled a topical and important subject matter in a unique and interesting way, and it was thrilling, provocative and stylish. Sure, Traffic had similar themes, but if you ask a film fan which movie they like better, Requiem wins 99 times out of 100. Excuse the pun, but nominating Requiem For a Dream for Best Picture would have been a big shot in the arm to the indie circuit.
* Gladiator
o Chocolat
o Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
o Erin Brockovich
o Traffic
+ Almost Famous
+ Billy Elliot
+ Cast Away
+ Requiem For a Dream
+ Wonder Boys
---------------------
2001:
First of all, congratulations to both Ridley Scott and David Lynch for their Best Director nominations. Both are master craftsmen in the medium of film, and both deserved accolades for their efforts this year, even with such tough competition. Even with such illustrious filmographies, Black Hawk Down and Mulholland Dr. are two of their strongest films. Both movies earn the first two vacant spots for Best Picture.
However, with both films touching on dark subject matter, we'll need to balance out the nominations with some significantly lighter fare; The Royal Tenenbaums snatches up spot number three. It takes the token comedy slot, it's a great script, a great ensemble cast, and I doubt there would be any objections. This will also be the only time anybody ever referred to The Royal Tenenbaums as "lighter fare."
I never understood why Amelie wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Everybody loved it. I went to college with a metalhead who only owned five DVDs, and Amelie was one of them. It's romance, it's comedy, it's enchanting, it's whimsical, and it was nominated for five other Academy Awards, but not Best Picture. Interesting trivia: only two French films have ever been nominated for Best Picture, which is odd considering France's filmography is filled with illustrious classic. But even still, with Life is Beautiful being nominated in 1998 and Crouching Tiger being nominated in 2000, maybe Academy members were just fed up with foreign films. Well, suck it up jerks. Amelie takes spot number four.
Interestingly enough, I wouldn't predict either Shrek or Monsters Inc to earn a nomination slot. If only one came out this year, certainly they would, but tragically, the vote is split between the two. Neither get the final prize.
Instead, Ali takes spot number five because boxing movies are always nominated.
* A Beautiful Mind
o Gosford Park
o In the Bedroom
o The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
o Moulin Rouge
+ Ali
+ Amelie
+ Black Hawk Down
+ Mulholland Dr.
+ The Royal Tenenbaums
----------------------
2002:
Talk to Her earns the first nomination because of the director rule, making this the fourth foreign film in five years to earn a best picture nomination. And with great competition; Spirited Away, Hero, and Y Tu Mama Tambien were all gunning for the honor as well.
In a year where the Best Picture winner is a musical about women in an all-woman's prison who love cabaret, I hesitate to say we need a token chick flick, but we need a token chick flick. A film about a forbidden romance that society says is wrong, but which the lovers pursue anyway. And this year, there was one of the best: Far From Heaven.
Adaptation takes the third spot, being the sole quirky, unconventional film out of all the nominees (if you can consider orcs and ents conventional).
For the sake of argument, let's not consider The Hours or Adaptation a full-fledged biopic. Instead, let's give that honor to Catch Me If You Can. It's also a comedy, which works in its favor. Somehow.
Finally, the last nomination goes to About Schmidt because I get the feeling lots of people liked it, but were guilted into voting for something else. It deserves a better destiny than being the butt of jokes concerning Kathy Bates and a hot tub.
* Chicago
o Gangs of New York
o The Hours
o The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
o The Pianist
+ About Schmidt
+ Adaptation
+ Catch Me If You Can
+ Far From Heaven
+ Talk to Her
---------------------
2003:
City of God takes the first spot because of the director rule. It deserves the nomination, anyway.
In the wake of 9/11, there were a lot of films about prejudice this year, such as House of Sand and Fog, In America, Dirty Pretty Things, and probably some others I'm forgetting. But if I may be so bold, I'd like to combine this category with the token comedy slot and give the nomination to Bend It Like Beckham. And no, Lost in Translation does not already fill the token comedy slot.
After years of almosts, Pixar finally gets its first nomination here with Finding Nemo. Congratulations, fishies.
Finally, let's give the last two slots to Cold Mountain and 21 Grams. Both were critically acclaimed dramas, both had a number of other nominations, and frankly, it doesn't matter what the last two nominations were, because Lord of the Rings destroyed everything in its path.
* The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
o Lost In Translation
o Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
o Mystic River
o Seabiscuit
+ 21 Grams
+ Bend it Like Beckham
+ City of God
+ Cold Mountain
+ Finding Nemo
----------------------
2004:
I'm going to go against my self-imposed director rule for one reason: It's not practical here. The film in question is Vera Drake. I know nothing about Vera Drake. I don't think anybody saw Vera Drake. And if someone did, I doubt they remember anything about it. So I'm not going to honor it. There's too many other films to nominate, anyways.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was released in March 2004. Compare this to 90% of all Oscar-nominated films which come out in December. Most people forgot about it come nomination time. I theorize if Finding Neverland and Eternal Sunshine swapped release dates, Eternal Sunshine would have earned the nomination instead. But now with ten nominees, they both get the honor.
Collateral earns a nomination as the token thriller, a genre absent from the five original nominees. AMPAS, genre films will not bite you.
Pixar shines again with a nomination for The Incredibles, an obvious choice if you ask me. But nobody ever does, which is why I've resigned myself to blogging.
After a very fortuitous year at the Emmys for Angels in America, director Mike Nichols has carryover success at the Oscars with his film Closer. It's a romance that gets the majority of the chick flick votes, especially after the disappointments that were The Phantom of the Opera, Alfie and De-Lovely.
So what film gets the fifth and final slot? Well, after Michael Moore's 2002 Best Documentary win for Bowling for Columbine, his big win at Cannes in 2004, and a general animosity by everyone throughout Hollywood towards the Bush administration, I think there's a fairly strong likelihood Fahrenheit 9/11 would snatch up a nomination for best picture. It would be the first documentary to ever be nominated outside the Best Documentary category (as far as my research reveals), and for Best Picture, no less. Hollywood does not hide its liberal bias well.
* Million Dollar Baby
o The Aviator
o Finding Neverland
o Ray
o Sideways
+ Collateral
+ Closer
+ Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
+ Fahrenheit 9/11
+ The Incredibles
-------------------
2005:
In an odd turn of events, 2005 was one of four years where the Best Picture nominees matched up exactly with the Best Director nominees. So the director rule is out.
A History of Violence was lauded as one of the best films of the year, so we'll give it the token thriller slot.
In fact, let's just honor all the token stereotypes. Let's give a nomination to The Squid and the Whale for comedy (Baumbach/Raimi dichotomy be damned).
The Constant Gardner gets a nomination for being politically topical and provocative.
Walk the Line gets a nomination for being a combination musical and biopic (and because it's basically Ray, but with country singers).
And finally, Cinderella Man gets a nom because boxing movies are always nominated.
* Crash
o Brokeback Mountain
o Capote
o Good Night, and Good Luck
o Munich
+ Cinderella Man
+ The Constant Gardener
+ A History of Violence
+ The Squid and the Whale
+ Walk the Line
-------------------
2006:
United 93 gets the first nomination. It was nominated for Best Director, and because 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11.
I'm hesitant to name any others nominees, because the nominations for 2006 seem to hit all the marks: Action, social drama, indie comedy, a biopic and a foreign language film (even though Letters From Iwo Jima was produced in America). But all hesitations aside, I've got a blog post to finish. Let's just double up on everything.
Half-Nelson is another social drama exploring societal and class relations across differing ethnic backgrounds only to reach the conclusion that we're not all that different (just like Babel.)
Pan's Labyrinth is the story of a young protagonist searching for escape and salvation from hostile authority figures, war, and an assured death. And its presented in a foreign language (just like Letters From Iwo Jima.)
The Devil Wears Prada is a comedy about a female protagonist trying to advance in an industry ruled by superficial standards of beauty, only to discover the best way to live is by embracing your flaws (just like Little Miss Sunshine.)
And finally, Dreamgirls is the story of a female protagonist finding the courage to face her eagerly awaiting public, even while being pressured by authority figures to remain in the background (just like The Queen.)
* The Departed
o Babel
o Letters from Iwo Jima
o Little Miss Sunshine
o The Queen
+ The Devil Wears Prada
+ Dreamgirls
+ Half Nelson
+ Pan's Labyrinth
+ United 93
------------------
2007:
2007 was one of the greatest years for movies in recent history. Go look at the Wikipedia page for 2007 In Film and try to disagree with me. Not now, do it on your own time.
First off, let's give The Diving Bell and the Butterfly a nomination for not only getting the Best Director nom, but for also being a foreign language film and a biopic. Way to hog the spotlight.
Zodiac was a critical darling, and everybody was surprised when it not only missed out on a Best Picture nom, but was completely ignored by the Academy altogether. The March release date didn't help. Well, it's a good thing I can reshape history in my image.
In addition to being a great year for cinema in general, 2007 successfully revived the Western genre with two top-notch films; 3:10 to Yuma and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Crawford. One of these two films deserves recognition. And since I'm the only one authorized to break ties, I'm declaring 3:10 to Yuma the slightly better film.
Let's give the fourth slot to Sweeney Todd. Partially because it was a musical, partially because it had mass appeal, but mostly because Tim Burton deserves an Oscar nomination by this point in his career.
Finally, Ratatouille gets a nomination because it's the token Pixar flick. And because, with films about hitmen, rape, teenage pregnancy, corruption, exploitation, frontier gunslinging, psychological torment from near-total paralysis, cannibalism and serial killers, 2007 needs an upper. As Jon Stewart said at the Oscars, "Does this town need a hug?"
* No Country for Old Men
o Atonement
o Juno
o Michael Clayton
o There Will Be Blood
+ 3:10 to Yuma
+ The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
+ Ratatouille
+ Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
+ Zodiac
---------------
2008:
I don't even have to talk about 2008. I can name the other five nominations for 2008 right here, right now. The Dark Knight, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Wall-E, and The Wrestler.
How can I be certain? Because everybody already knows these were the other five nominations. There's no denying it. Everybody asked the same question in 2008: "Why weren't these five films nominated?"
And the Academy responded, "Because those five films were nominated."
And then everybody asked, "But why were those five films nominated, and not these five films."
And the Academy responded, "Because we can only nominate five films."
2008 was the reason the nominations were bumped up to ten. Hollywood was just producing too much quality work, and too many good films were falling through the cracks. There had to be a change. And change there was.
* Slumdog Millionaire
o The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
o Frost/Nixon
o Milk
o The Reader
+ The Dark Knight
+ Doubt
+ Revolutionary Road
+ Wall-E
+ The Wrestler
Well, thanks for joining me on this trip through an alternate universe that rejected the studio machine Oscar Bait a decade early. You're probably wondering if I'll go back further and show the alternate nominees from even earlier years, but I took a look at some of the other nominees from 1997 and 1998... Eesh. Let's leave history for the history books.
The official reasoning behind this decision was to honor more mainstream films, thus enticing more people to watch the televised ceremony. The actual reason was to alleviate guilt; no longer were members of the academy forced to kowtow to Oscar Bait. You could, if you so desired, nominate films that you enjoyed watching.
But what if the Academy had made this decision ten years earlier? What would the nominations look like from 1999-2008 if every year had ten best film nominations?
If I may be so bold:
1999:
With the exceptions of 1928, 1935 and 1989, every film that's won Best Picture has been nominated for best director. As such, we can pretty much deduce with ten nominees that any film nominated for Best Director would also receive a nomination for Best Picture. In the case of 1999, that film would be Being John Malkovich.
At the Golden Globes, Man on the Moon won best picture (musical or comedy) and best actor in a lead role (Jim Carrey), so we can assume there was more than just mild interest in this film. It's also a biopic of somebody who dies tragically young, and the Academy loves those.
We can tell based on the nominations for The Green Mile and The Sixth Sense that 1999 favored psychological mindscrews. As such, with ten nominations, we can deduce one other film would be of the same vein. The Talented Mr Ripley can fill that niche.
I don't think Toy Story 2 would receive a nomination. Pixar was still in its infancy in 1999, and animation would probably still be getting the short end of the stick. But the groundwork has been laid; critics would already be asking why Pixar didn't get a nomination. The animation ghetto argument has just advanced by nine years.
Instead, let's give the final nominations to Magnolia because its a great film that was overlooked, and The Hurricane, because boxing movies are always nominated.
* American Beauty
o The Cider House Rules
o The Green Mile
o The Insider
o The Sixth Sense
+ Being John Malkovich
+ The Hurricane
+ Magnolia
+ Man on the Moon
+ The Talented Mr Ripley
-------------------------
2000:
Wow. Just looking at the nominees for 2000, I can already see how far we've come regarding Oscar Bait.
First, Billy Elliot gets in because of the director rule (groan).
Next, we'll give a nomination to Cast Away because everybody saw it, everybody loved it, it made its impact on popular culture, and then pretty much everybody forgot about it. Just like most Best Picture nominees.
We'll give the token comedy slot to Almost Famous because it won at the Golden Globes. And because it also managed to snatch the Best Original Screenplay Oscar away from the Best Picture winner, Gladiator. Which is a feat in and of itself.
Let's give the penultimate slot to Wonder Boys. No particular reason, here.
Finally, to prove that at least someone in Hollywood had a pulse in 2001, the final slot goes to Requiem For a Dream. It was one of the essential movies in the history of Indie films, it tackled a topical and important subject matter in a unique and interesting way, and it was thrilling, provocative and stylish. Sure, Traffic had similar themes, but if you ask a film fan which movie they like better, Requiem wins 99 times out of 100. Excuse the pun, but nominating Requiem For a Dream for Best Picture would have been a big shot in the arm to the indie circuit.
* Gladiator
o Chocolat
o Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
o Erin Brockovich
o Traffic
+ Almost Famous
+ Billy Elliot
+ Cast Away
+ Requiem For a Dream
+ Wonder Boys
---------------------
2001:
First of all, congratulations to both Ridley Scott and David Lynch for their Best Director nominations. Both are master craftsmen in the medium of film, and both deserved accolades for their efforts this year, even with such tough competition. Even with such illustrious filmographies, Black Hawk Down and Mulholland Dr. are two of their strongest films. Both movies earn the first two vacant spots for Best Picture.
However, with both films touching on dark subject matter, we'll need to balance out the nominations with some significantly lighter fare; The Royal Tenenbaums snatches up spot number three. It takes the token comedy slot, it's a great script, a great ensemble cast, and I doubt there would be any objections. This will also be the only time anybody ever referred to The Royal Tenenbaums as "lighter fare."
I never understood why Amelie wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Everybody loved it. I went to college with a metalhead who only owned five DVDs, and Amelie was one of them. It's romance, it's comedy, it's enchanting, it's whimsical, and it was nominated for five other Academy Awards, but not Best Picture. Interesting trivia: only two French films have ever been nominated for Best Picture, which is odd considering France's filmography is filled with illustrious classic. But even still, with Life is Beautiful being nominated in 1998 and Crouching Tiger being nominated in 2000, maybe Academy members were just fed up with foreign films. Well, suck it up jerks. Amelie takes spot number four.
Interestingly enough, I wouldn't predict either Shrek or Monsters Inc to earn a nomination slot. If only one came out this year, certainly they would, but tragically, the vote is split between the two. Neither get the final prize.
Instead, Ali takes spot number five because boxing movies are always nominated.
* A Beautiful Mind
o Gosford Park
o In the Bedroom
o The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
o Moulin Rouge
+ Ali
+ Amelie
+ Black Hawk Down
+ Mulholland Dr.
+ The Royal Tenenbaums
----------------------
2002:
Talk to Her earns the first nomination because of the director rule, making this the fourth foreign film in five years to earn a best picture nomination. And with great competition; Spirited Away, Hero, and Y Tu Mama Tambien were all gunning for the honor as well.
In a year where the Best Picture winner is a musical about women in an all-woman's prison who love cabaret, I hesitate to say we need a token chick flick, but we need a token chick flick. A film about a forbidden romance that society says is wrong, but which the lovers pursue anyway. And this year, there was one of the best: Far From Heaven.
Adaptation takes the third spot, being the sole quirky, unconventional film out of all the nominees (if you can consider orcs and ents conventional).
For the sake of argument, let's not consider The Hours or Adaptation a full-fledged biopic. Instead, let's give that honor to Catch Me If You Can. It's also a comedy, which works in its favor. Somehow.
Finally, the last nomination goes to About Schmidt because I get the feeling lots of people liked it, but were guilted into voting for something else. It deserves a better destiny than being the butt of jokes concerning Kathy Bates and a hot tub.
* Chicago
o Gangs of New York
o The Hours
o The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
o The Pianist
+ About Schmidt
+ Adaptation
+ Catch Me If You Can
+ Far From Heaven
+ Talk to Her
---------------------
2003:
City of God takes the first spot because of the director rule. It deserves the nomination, anyway.
In the wake of 9/11, there were a lot of films about prejudice this year, such as House of Sand and Fog, In America, Dirty Pretty Things, and probably some others I'm forgetting. But if I may be so bold, I'd like to combine this category with the token comedy slot and give the nomination to Bend It Like Beckham. And no, Lost in Translation does not already fill the token comedy slot.
After years of almosts, Pixar finally gets its first nomination here with Finding Nemo. Congratulations, fishies.
Finally, let's give the last two slots to Cold Mountain and 21 Grams. Both were critically acclaimed dramas, both had a number of other nominations, and frankly, it doesn't matter what the last two nominations were, because Lord of the Rings destroyed everything in its path.
* The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
o Lost In Translation
o Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
o Mystic River
o Seabiscuit
+ 21 Grams
+ Bend it Like Beckham
+ City of God
+ Cold Mountain
+ Finding Nemo
----------------------
2004:
I'm going to go against my self-imposed director rule for one reason: It's not practical here. The film in question is Vera Drake. I know nothing about Vera Drake. I don't think anybody saw Vera Drake. And if someone did, I doubt they remember anything about it. So I'm not going to honor it. There's too many other films to nominate, anyways.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was released in March 2004. Compare this to 90% of all Oscar-nominated films which come out in December. Most people forgot about it come nomination time. I theorize if Finding Neverland and Eternal Sunshine swapped release dates, Eternal Sunshine would have earned the nomination instead. But now with ten nominees, they both get the honor.
Collateral earns a nomination as the token thriller, a genre absent from the five original nominees. AMPAS, genre films will not bite you.
Pixar shines again with a nomination for The Incredibles, an obvious choice if you ask me. But nobody ever does, which is why I've resigned myself to blogging.
After a very fortuitous year at the Emmys for Angels in America, director Mike Nichols has carryover success at the Oscars with his film Closer. It's a romance that gets the majority of the chick flick votes, especially after the disappointments that were The Phantom of the Opera, Alfie and De-Lovely.
So what film gets the fifth and final slot? Well, after Michael Moore's 2002 Best Documentary win for Bowling for Columbine, his big win at Cannes in 2004, and a general animosity by everyone throughout Hollywood towards the Bush administration, I think there's a fairly strong likelihood Fahrenheit 9/11 would snatch up a nomination for best picture. It would be the first documentary to ever be nominated outside the Best Documentary category (as far as my research reveals), and for Best Picture, no less. Hollywood does not hide its liberal bias well.
* Million Dollar Baby
o The Aviator
o Finding Neverland
o Ray
o Sideways
+ Collateral
+ Closer
+ Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
+ Fahrenheit 9/11
+ The Incredibles
-------------------
2005:
In an odd turn of events, 2005 was one of four years where the Best Picture nominees matched up exactly with the Best Director nominees. So the director rule is out.
A History of Violence was lauded as one of the best films of the year, so we'll give it the token thriller slot.
In fact, let's just honor all the token stereotypes. Let's give a nomination to The Squid and the Whale for comedy (Baumbach/Raimi dichotomy be damned).
The Constant Gardner gets a nomination for being politically topical and provocative.
Walk the Line gets a nomination for being a combination musical and biopic (and because it's basically Ray, but with country singers).
And finally, Cinderella Man gets a nom because boxing movies are always nominated.
* Crash
o Brokeback Mountain
o Capote
o Good Night, and Good Luck
o Munich
+ Cinderella Man
+ The Constant Gardener
+ A History of Violence
+ The Squid and the Whale
+ Walk the Line
-------------------
2006:
United 93 gets the first nomination. It was nominated for Best Director, and because 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11.
I'm hesitant to name any others nominees, because the nominations for 2006 seem to hit all the marks: Action, social drama, indie comedy, a biopic and a foreign language film (even though Letters From Iwo Jima was produced in America). But all hesitations aside, I've got a blog post to finish. Let's just double up on everything.
Half-Nelson is another social drama exploring societal and class relations across differing ethnic backgrounds only to reach the conclusion that we're not all that different (just like Babel.)
Pan's Labyrinth is the story of a young protagonist searching for escape and salvation from hostile authority figures, war, and an assured death. And its presented in a foreign language (just like Letters From Iwo Jima.)
The Devil Wears Prada is a comedy about a female protagonist trying to advance in an industry ruled by superficial standards of beauty, only to discover the best way to live is by embracing your flaws (just like Little Miss Sunshine.)
And finally, Dreamgirls is the story of a female protagonist finding the courage to face her eagerly awaiting public, even while being pressured by authority figures to remain in the background (just like The Queen.)
* The Departed
o Babel
o Letters from Iwo Jima
o Little Miss Sunshine
o The Queen
+ The Devil Wears Prada
+ Dreamgirls
+ Half Nelson
+ Pan's Labyrinth
+ United 93
------------------
2007:
2007 was one of the greatest years for movies in recent history. Go look at the Wikipedia page for 2007 In Film and try to disagree with me. Not now, do it on your own time.
First off, let's give The Diving Bell and the Butterfly a nomination for not only getting the Best Director nom, but for also being a foreign language film and a biopic. Way to hog the spotlight.
Zodiac was a critical darling, and everybody was surprised when it not only missed out on a Best Picture nom, but was completely ignored by the Academy altogether. The March release date didn't help. Well, it's a good thing I can reshape history in my image.
In addition to being a great year for cinema in general, 2007 successfully revived the Western genre with two top-notch films; 3:10 to Yuma and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Crawford. One of these two films deserves recognition. And since I'm the only one authorized to break ties, I'm declaring 3:10 to Yuma the slightly better film.
Let's give the fourth slot to Sweeney Todd. Partially because it was a musical, partially because it had mass appeal, but mostly because Tim Burton deserves an Oscar nomination by this point in his career.
Finally, Ratatouille gets a nomination because it's the token Pixar flick. And because, with films about hitmen, rape, teenage pregnancy, corruption, exploitation, frontier gunslinging, psychological torment from near-total paralysis, cannibalism and serial killers, 2007 needs an upper. As Jon Stewart said at the Oscars, "Does this town need a hug?"
* No Country for Old Men
o Atonement
o Juno
o Michael Clayton
o There Will Be Blood
+ 3:10 to Yuma
+ The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
+ Ratatouille
+ Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
+ Zodiac
---------------
2008:
I don't even have to talk about 2008. I can name the other five nominations for 2008 right here, right now. The Dark Knight, Doubt, Revolutionary Road, Wall-E, and The Wrestler.
How can I be certain? Because everybody already knows these were the other five nominations. There's no denying it. Everybody asked the same question in 2008: "Why weren't these five films nominated?"
And the Academy responded, "Because those five films were nominated."
And then everybody asked, "But why were those five films nominated, and not these five films."
And the Academy responded, "Because we can only nominate five films."
2008 was the reason the nominations were bumped up to ten. Hollywood was just producing too much quality work, and too many good films were falling through the cracks. There had to be a change. And change there was.
* Slumdog Millionaire
o The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
o Frost/Nixon
o Milk
o The Reader
+ The Dark Knight
+ Doubt
+ Revolutionary Road
+ Wall-E
+ The Wrestler
Well, thanks for joining me on this trip through an alternate universe that rejected the studio machine Oscar Bait a decade early. You're probably wondering if I'll go back further and show the alternate nominees from even earlier years, but I took a look at some of the other nominees from 1997 and 1998... Eesh. Let's leave history for the history books.
1/25/2011
83rd Academy Award Nominations
Best Picture:
As I said before, 2010 wasn't a great year for movies. If you asked me a month ago which ten films were getting the nominations for best picture, I could have picked them. I'm not Nostradamus, it was just painfully obvious. I think everybody would have come to the same conclusion. Last year there were surprises like A Serious Man and District 9. We don't have anything like that this year. There were only two or three dark horses sitting in the wings, but if they somehow achieved the impossible and garnered a coveted nomination, I can't tell which of the ten final nominees would be bumped in their favor. This is a seriously conclusive final list, and while predictable, I can't really object to it.
Best Animated Feature:
This, however, was a surprise. Not a single person doubted Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon cinching up two of three nomination slots here. The mystery laid with who was lucky contender number 3. The poor, poor sap who would have to take home the 'Participant' trophy in the most heated competition since Shrek went up against Monsters Inc. (And yes, I still claim How to Train Your Dragon has a chance of winning.)
Everybody thought it was going to be Despicable Me, and I was readying aspirin for such a conclusion. Despicable Me is such an obnoxious movie. Everything from the character design, to the hackneyed story, to the clumsy animation, to those stupid little minion things which are being slapped on products left and right as if we're still going to remotely care about them in five years. It's just awful.
Then Tangled came out. It was a typical by-the-books Disney story, but the animation was so graceful, so expressive, so immersive, it was a shot of adrenaline in the flatlining CGI animation genre. It was a serious contender.
But I always forget: Animators nominate the animated movies. And there's nothing animators like better than seeing their craft treated like royalty. Stuff like Persepolis and the Secret of Kells always have a way of muscling in over "Animals Go on an Adventure 3 in 3D." As such, I really should have guessed The Illusionist was getting the third nomination.
Doesn't matter, though. It's still not winning.
Art Direction:
I wasn't expecting Scott Pilgrim to get a nomination for anything, but it would have been nice to see him here. But no sour grapes; I can't complain about any of the five nominations. They're all expressive, all unique, all immersive. Even Alice in Wonderland. Despite it being horrifically overrated and even moreso unnecessary, it's dripping with Tim Burton's stylistic, gothic charm. It's actually the only good thing about the film. But... I'm bitter and spiteful, and I'm rooting for any of the other four films nominated.
Best Documentary (Feature Length):
What the hell?! I've... I've heard of these films. All five of them. I haven't seen them, but I've heard of them. That's... that's not supposed to happen! They're supposed to have one single documentary everybody's heard of and four films that were screened once in a private gallery 20 miles below Tribeca. What is going on with the world!?
Makeup:
Wolfman? Really?
Sound Mixing:
Salt? Really?
Visual Effects:
Hereafter? Really?
Directing:
Christopher Nolan was robbed for a nomination, but that's par for the course, innit? It's always the film nominated, and never the director. It's as if Auteur Theory runs perpendicular to the AMPAS. Kubrick never won. Hitchcock never won. Godard never won. Bergman, Lynch, Tarantino, and Altman never won. But Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson both won.
In conclusion, there are the basic flaws with the Oscar nominations, but nothing too grievous. Just the same problems we have every year. It's a very middle-of-the-road year. I can't get ecstatic, but I'm not foaming at the mouth.
I only have one thing to say, and I am dead serious about this: The last two years, the four acting categories have been preceded by five actors, each giving lengthy, bland speeches about the five nominees in each category. That's twenty speeches per broadcast, each delivered with the same enthusiasm that a fifth grade gives at a Thanksgiving pageant.
Given the choice between hearing the nominated scores and original songs being performed and hearing these speeches, I would rather hear the songs/scores twice. I would rather watch more commercials than see these speeches. We have to stop this pointless endeavour. It's long, it's boring, it's unnecessary padding, it kills the momentum, it forces out time for recognition in the other categories, and it's masturbatory.
Stop. Doing. This!
As I said before, 2010 wasn't a great year for movies. If you asked me a month ago which ten films were getting the nominations for best picture, I could have picked them. I'm not Nostradamus, it was just painfully obvious. I think everybody would have come to the same conclusion. Last year there were surprises like A Serious Man and District 9. We don't have anything like that this year. There were only two or three dark horses sitting in the wings, but if they somehow achieved the impossible and garnered a coveted nomination, I can't tell which of the ten final nominees would be bumped in their favor. This is a seriously conclusive final list, and while predictable, I can't really object to it.
Best Animated Feature:
This, however, was a surprise. Not a single person doubted Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon cinching up two of three nomination slots here. The mystery laid with who was lucky contender number 3. The poor, poor sap who would have to take home the 'Participant' trophy in the most heated competition since Shrek went up against Monsters Inc. (And yes, I still claim How to Train Your Dragon has a chance of winning.)
Everybody thought it was going to be Despicable Me, and I was readying aspirin for such a conclusion. Despicable Me is such an obnoxious movie. Everything from the character design, to the hackneyed story, to the clumsy animation, to those stupid little minion things which are being slapped on products left and right as if we're still going to remotely care about them in five years. It's just awful.
Then Tangled came out. It was a typical by-the-books Disney story, but the animation was so graceful, so expressive, so immersive, it was a shot of adrenaline in the flatlining CGI animation genre. It was a serious contender.
But I always forget: Animators nominate the animated movies. And there's nothing animators like better than seeing their craft treated like royalty. Stuff like Persepolis and the Secret of Kells always have a way of muscling in over "Animals Go on an Adventure 3 in 3D." As such, I really should have guessed The Illusionist was getting the third nomination.
Doesn't matter, though. It's still not winning.
Art Direction:
I wasn't expecting Scott Pilgrim to get a nomination for anything, but it would have been nice to see him here. But no sour grapes; I can't complain about any of the five nominations. They're all expressive, all unique, all immersive. Even Alice in Wonderland. Despite it being horrifically overrated and even moreso unnecessary, it's dripping with Tim Burton's stylistic, gothic charm. It's actually the only good thing about the film. But... I'm bitter and spiteful, and I'm rooting for any of the other four films nominated.
Best Documentary (Feature Length):
What the hell?! I've... I've heard of these films. All five of them. I haven't seen them, but I've heard of them. That's... that's not supposed to happen! They're supposed to have one single documentary everybody's heard of and four films that were screened once in a private gallery 20 miles below Tribeca. What is going on with the world!?
Makeup:
Wolfman? Really?
Sound Mixing:
Salt? Really?
Visual Effects:
Hereafter? Really?
Directing:
Christopher Nolan was robbed for a nomination, but that's par for the course, innit? It's always the film nominated, and never the director. It's as if Auteur Theory runs perpendicular to the AMPAS. Kubrick never won. Hitchcock never won. Godard never won. Bergman, Lynch, Tarantino, and Altman never won. But Kevin Costner and Mel Gibson both won.
In conclusion, there are the basic flaws with the Oscar nominations, but nothing too grievous. Just the same problems we have every year. It's a very middle-of-the-road year. I can't get ecstatic, but I'm not foaming at the mouth.
I only have one thing to say, and I am dead serious about this: The last two years, the four acting categories have been preceded by five actors, each giving lengthy, bland speeches about the five nominees in each category. That's twenty speeches per broadcast, each delivered with the same enthusiasm that a fifth grade gives at a Thanksgiving pageant.
Given the choice between hearing the nominated scores and original songs being performed and hearing these speeches, I would rather hear the songs/scores twice. I would rather watch more commercials than see these speeches. We have to stop this pointless endeavour. It's long, it's boring, it's unnecessary padding, it kills the momentum, it forces out time for recognition in the other categories, and it's masturbatory.
Stop. Doing. This!
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